Biotech Catalyst Glossary

A comprehensive guide to FDA approval terminology, regulatory pathways, and event-driven investing concepts. Understand PDUFA dates, advisory committees, breakthrough designations, and ODIN scores.

Designed for biotech investors, event-driven traders, and anyone researching pharmaceutical catalysts. Each term includes a clear definition tailored for non-regulatory professionals.

PDUFA

Prescription Drug User Fee Act. The FDA's commitment to review drug applications (NDAs, BLAs) within standard (10 months) or priority (6 months) timelines. PDUFA dates are key biotech catalysts.

NDA

New Drug Application. The formal submission to FDA seeking approval to market a new drug in the United States. Required for all new small-molecule therapeutics and some biologics.

BLA

Biologics License Application. The FDA submission for biological products (monoclonal antibodies, cell therapies, gene therapies, vaccines). Follows similar review timelines as NDAs.

sNDA

Supplemental New Drug Application. An application to amend an already-approved NDA (e.g., new indication, formulation, or dosage). Often faster to approve than original NDAs.

CRL

Complete Response Letter. FDA rejection of a drug application citing deficiencies. Companies must address all CRL issues and resubmit. Multiple CRLs reduce approval probability significantly.

AdCom

Advisory Committee Meeting. The FDA convenes independent experts to review trial data and vote on a drug's benefit-risk profile. AdCom votes strongly influence FDA approval decisions.

Priority Review

FDA expedited review pathway (6-month timeline instead of standard 10 months). Granted for drugs that provide substantial improvement over existing therapies.

Breakthrough Therapy

FDA designation for drugs showing significant efficacy advantage over available therapies. Enables expedited review, more frequent meetings with FDA, and potential accelerated approval.

Fast Track

FDA expedited development pathway for drugs addressing serious or unmet medical needs. Enables priority review and rolling submission of application data.

Accelerated Approval

FDA approval based on surrogate or intermediate endpoints rather than clinical benefit. Requires confirmatory Phase 4 trials. Enables faster market entry but carries uncertainty risk.

REMS

Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy. FDA-mandated program for drugs with serious safety risks. REMS requirements complicate marketing and reduce patient access, impacting peak sales potential.

CMC

Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls. The regulatory section of a drug application covering drug substance synthesis, drug product formulation, stability, and quality assurance. CMC deficiencies often delay approval.

sBLA

Supplemental Biologics License Application. Amendment to an approved BLA (e.g., new indication, manufacturing change). sBLA approvals can provide near-term catalysts for biotech companies.

Orphan Drug

Designation for drugs treating rare diseases (<200,000 patients in US). Provides 7-year market exclusivity post-approval, tax credits, and expedited review. Reduces market size but increases profit margins.

ODIN Score

Proprietary machine learning score (0–100%) predicting FDA approval probability for a PDUFA event. Trained on 2,210 historical FDA decisions. PDUFA.bio's flagship predictive metric.

Runup Strategy

Trading strategy buying biotech stock weeks or months before a PDUFA decision, expecting stock appreciation if approved. TIER_1 and TIER_2 ODIN events are prime runup candidates.

Regulatory Pathways at a Glance

PathwayTimelineEligibilityImpact
Standard Review10 months (NDA/BLA)All drugsNeutral
Priority Review6 monthsSubstantial advantage over existingBullish
Breakthrough TherapyExpeditedSignificant advantageVery Bullish
Fast TrackExpeditedSerious unmet needBullish
Accelerated ApprovalExpeditedSurrogate endpoint evidenceVery Bullish / Risky

Drug Application Types

NDA

Original approval for new small-molecule drugs. Full data package (chemistry, manufacturing, nonclinical, clinical). Standard or priority review timelines apply.

BLA

Approval for biologics: monoclonal antibodies, cell therapies, gene therapies, recombinant proteins, vaccines. Follow similar pathways as NDAs but with specialized chemistry/manufacturing requirements.

sNDA

Amendment to approved NDA for new indication, dosage, formulation, or manufacturing change. Often faster approval (3–6 months) because active ingredient already approved.

sBLA

Amendment to approved BLA for manufacturing, indication, or dosage changes. Important catalyst for approved biotech companies seeking label expansions.

Key Investing Concepts

CRL Risk

A Complete Response Letter from FDA means rejection. The drug cannot launch; company must address deficiencies and resubmit. CRL probability is 15–30% even for strong candidates. TIER_4 ODIN events have >50% CRL risk.

REMS Burden

Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy requirements (e.g., patient enrollment registries, prescriber training) reduce peak sales potential by 20–50%. Common for cancer drugs, opioids, and other high-risk products.

Label Expansion

sNDA/sBLA approvals for new indications or patient populations. Often quicker than original approval and can double-triple peak sales. Secondary catalysts for approved drugs.

Orphan Advantage

Rare disease designation (Orphan Drug status) grants 7-year market exclusivity post-approval. Smaller peak sales but higher margins. Common in oncology, neurology, immunology.

PDUFA Calendar 2026What Is a PDUFA Date?ODIN EnginePricing & PlansQ1 Oncology PDUFAsGlossary

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PDUFA.BIO
Tue Mar 3, 2026
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FDA PDUFA Calendar & Biotech Catalyst Intelligence — Scored by AI

Track every upcoming PDUFA date, Phase 2/3 readout, and biotech earnings event in one fast, filterable calendar. PDUFA.BIO's ODIN scoring engine analyzes 2,200+ historical FDA decisions to generate real-time approval probability scores — so you can size positions with conviction, not guesswork.

50 PDUFA dates186 phase readouts27 earnings datesUpdated 3/3/2026

FDA Catalyst Intelligence

ML probability scores for PDUFA dates & Phase 2/3 readouts. Powered by ODIN v1108 — 54-weight engine trained on 2,210 PDUFAs. AUC 0.88.

CATALYSTS: 263|VERIFIED: 51/53 CORRECT|UPDATED: Mar 3, 2026|● LIVE
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LATEST WIN: ASND +6%TIER_1ODIN 88.9%5d AGO
Navepegritide (YUVIWEL)Achondroplasia (Pediatric). Accelerated approval 1 day before PDUFA (Feb 27 vs Feb 28). First weekly CNP analog for achondroplasia in children 2+. Orphan Drug. Rare Pediatric Dis
+6%
How to Use ODIN3 steps to your first trade
ODIN Verified Track Record
51/5396.2%TIER_1: 27/28 (96.4%)
Every prediction SHA-256 hashed before FDA decisions
Top TIER_1 Catalysts — March 2026
Highest probability FDA approvals
1.
GSKLinerixibatPDUFA
Cholestatic Pruritus (PBC)
93.6%
Mar 24
2.
BMYDeucravacitinib (Sotyktu)PDUFA
Psoriatic Arthritis
90.7%
Mar 6
3.
LNTHGallium-68 edotreotidePDUFA
NET PET Imaging
86.0%
Mar 29
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ODIN-Scored EntriesAuto Risk SizingCatalyst AlertsOptions Flow
Why PDUFA.BIOvs. alternatives
FeaturePDUFA.BIOOthers
AI Approval PredictionsODIN (TIER_1 96.4%)⚠️ Manual only
SHA-256 Hash ProofPre-locked No verification
Verified Track Record51/53 (96.2%) No public record
Runup Timing StrategyT-25→T-7 optimized⚠️ Generic
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PriceFree tier⚠️ $$$
ACTIVE CATALYSTS
263
50 PDUFA · 186 Readouts · 27 Earnings
HIGH CONVICTION
168
96 T1 · 72 T2 (PDUFA only)
AVG PDUFA PROB
74.9%
NEXT 7 DAYS
12
Next: VSTM

Next Upcoming Catalysts

ASNDNavepegritide (TransCon CNP) (PDUFA) — 2026-02-28 — ODIN: 88%
BMRNPALYNZIQ (pegvaliase) (PDUFA) — 2026-02-28 — ODIN: 92%
CHRSIdebenone (PDUFA) — 2026-02-28 — ODIN: 81%
EOLSQ4 2025 Earnings (Earnings) — 2026-03-03
QSIQ4 2025 Earnings (Earnings) — 2026-03-03

NEXT CATALYST EVENT

TIER 1

Deucravacitinib (Sotyktu)

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

Psoriatic Arthritis

90.7%
ODIN Approval Probability
COUNTDOWN TO DECISION
0
days
:
00
hrs
:
00
min
:
00
sec
Fri, Mar 6, 2026 · UTC · Target 5 PM ET
TIER DISTRIBUTION (PDUFA only)
26
12
6
6
TIER 1: 26TIER 2: 12TIER 3: 6TIER 4: 6
NEXT 30 DAYS — 41 EVENTS
Mar 4, 2026 (Est.)VSTMAfter Market Close
Mar 4, 2026 (Est.)VEEVAfter Market Close
Mar 4, 2026 (Est.)ICCCAfter Market Close
Mar 4, 2026 (Est.)OCGNBefore Market Open
Mar 5, 2026 (Est.)COOAfter Market Close
Mar 5, 2026 (Est.)PROFAfter Market Close
Mar 5, 2026 (Est.)OPRXAfter Market Close
Mar 5, 2026 (Est.)TNGXBefore Market Open
Mar 5, 2026 (Est.)HCMBefore Market Open
Mar 6, 2026BMY90.7%

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FDA catalyst intelligence powered by the ODIN v1108 scoring engine. Trained on 2,200+ PDUFA decisions & 2,000+ phase readouts (2015–2026).

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PDUFA.BIO is the data-driven FDA PDUFA calendar and biotech catalyst calendar built for quantitative investors. Track upcoming PDUFA dates for 2026, FDA drug approval action dates, and biotech earnings dates in a unified, filterable calendar. Learn what a PDUFA date is and how the ODIN AI scoring engine generates FDA approval probability scores. Use the biotech catalyst screener to filter by ticker, therapeutic area, and ODIN tier. Explore the PDUFA runup strategy and verify ODIN's accuracy on the verified track record page. Browse our biotech glossary and catalyst research hub.

DISCLAIMER: PDUFA.BIO is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) or any government agency. The name "PDUFA" refers to the Prescription Drug User Fee Act and is used descriptively. This site does not provide financial, investment, legal, or medical advice. PDUFA.BIO is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Probability scores are generated by machine-learning models based on historical data and publicly available information. These scores are statistical estimates, not predictions or guarantees of FDA action or securities performance. Past approval rates do not guarantee future results.

RISK WARNING: Investing in biotechnology and pharmaceutical securities involves substantial risk, including the risk of total loss of capital. Binary catalyst events (such as PDUFA dates) can result in extreme price volatility. You should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. PDUFA.BIO, its operators, contributors, and affiliates accept no responsibility or liability for any losses arising from use of this site.

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