Biotech Catalyst Heatmap
Interactive visual tool for scanning 200+ upcoming PDUFA dates, phase readouts, and earnings
Real-time updates • Color-coded by ODIN tier • Portfolio risk clustering
What is the Catalyst Heatmap?
The PDUFA.BIO Catalyst Heatmap is an interactive calendar view showing 200+ upcoming biotech catalyst events over the next 12 months. Instead of scrolling through a text calendar, the heatmap displays each event as a colored square, allowing you to instantly visualize:
- Which events are coming up
- Which ones have highest/lowest approval probability (via ODIN tier color)
- How clustered catalysts are on specific dates (portfolio risk compression)
- Which sectors (oncology, rare disease, etc.) dominate each quarter
This visual approach is faster than searching a spreadsheet and helps traders identify portfolio concentration risk and sector rotation opportunities.
Color Coding & ODIN Tiers
GREEN (TIER_1/2)
High confidence approvals. 80-93%+ accuracy. Low volatility runup potential. Best candidates for catalyst trading.
YELLOW (TIER_3)
Mixed signals. 60% accuracy. Moderate volatility. Use for sector rotation, avoid as primary positions.
RED (TIER_4)
High risk rejections. <50% accuracy. Avoid for runup trading. Use for short thesis research only.
Key Use Cases
Portfolio Scanning
Quickly scan your holdings for upcoming catalysts in the next 30-60 days. Identify which positions will have binary events and adjust exposure accordingly. The heatmap shows you at a glance if Q2 is catalyst-heavy vs quiet.
Sector Rotation
Look for quarter-to-quarter shifts in catalyst clusters. Example: Q1 is heavy oncology, Q3 is rare disease. Rotate your biotech exposure accordingly. The heatmap reveals these macro trends in seconds.
Risk Clustering
Identify dates where 3-5+ catalysts cluster (e.g., 3 PDUFA decisions on July 21). This signals high IV volatility, wider bid-ask spreads, and potential gap risk. Avoid overconcentration on those dates.
How to Read the Heatmap
X-Axis (Weeks)
Horizontal rows represent weeks (Monday-Sunday). Scroll right to see 3-6 months ahead.
Y-Axis (Companies/Tickers)
Each row represents a company with upcoming catalysts. Tickers are sorted by market cap (large to small, top to bottom).
Cell Color & Density
Each colored square = one catalyst event. The deeper the color, the higher the ODIN confidence. Darker greens are TIER_1 (93%+ accuracy). Lighter greens are TIER_2 (80%). Same logic for yellow and red.
Hovering Over a Cell
Hover over any colored square to see: ticker, company name, catalyst type (PDUFA/Readout/Earnings), expected date, ODIN tier, and approval probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is a catalyst gray (no color)?
Gray means ODIN hasn't yet assigned a tier (rare for major PDUFAs, more common for smaller companies or recent regulatory filings). As the event gets closer (T-30 days), ODIN generates a tier prediction and the cell turns green/yellow/red.
Can I filter by sector or ODIN tier?
Yes. Use the filter dropdowns above the heatmap to show only: oncology, rare disease, immunology, etc. You can also filter by TIER_1 only (to see highest confidence trades), or hide TIER_4 (to reduce noise). Filters work in real-time.
How often is the heatmap updated?
The heatmap updates in real-time as new PDUFA dates are announced by the FDA. ODIN tier predictions update daily as new price and options data arrives. If you see a date change or new ticker appear, the data was just published to our database.